Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Southland
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#186
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.5#240
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.2% 37.7% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.1 15.1
.500 or above 76.2% 92.6% 74.7%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 95.3% 87.3%
Conference Champion 33.1% 50.2% 31.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four5.4% 2.5% 5.7%
First Round22.9% 36.6% 21.7%
Second Round1.4% 4.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 8.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 43 - 6
Quad 415 - 618 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 48   @ Mississippi St. L 64-79 8%    
  Nov 16, 2019 154   @ Central Michigan L 75-80 31%    
  Nov 23, 2019 111   @ San Francisco L 66-75 22%    
  Nov 26, 2019 197   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-69 41%    
  Nov 30, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 74-59 90%    
  Dec 03, 2019 230   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 08, 2019 116   Louisiana Tech L 68-70 41%    
  Dec 18, 2019 347   Northwestern St. W 78-63 90%    
  Dec 21, 2019 243   New Orleans W 73-67 69%    
  Dec 29, 2019 229   @ Rice L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 02, 2020 316   @ McNeese St. W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 04, 2020 309   Nicholls St. W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 08, 2020 299   SE Louisiana W 71-62 77%    
  Jan 11, 2020 284   @ Central Arkansas W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 15, 2020 281   @ Lamar W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 18, 2020 292   @ Houston Baptist W 82-79 58%    
  Jan 22, 2020 286   Abilene Christian W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 29, 2020 291   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 01, 2020 290   Stephen F. Austin W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 05, 2020 344   @ Incarnate Word W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 309   @ Nicholls St. W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 12, 2020 299   @ SE Louisiana W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 15, 2020 284   Central Arkansas W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 19, 2020 281   Lamar W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 22, 2020 292   Houston Baptist W 85-76 75%    
  Feb 26, 2020 286   @ Abilene Christian W 67-65 56%    
  Mar 04, 2020 291   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 66-64 57%    
  Mar 07, 2020 290   @ Stephen F. Austin W 71-69 57%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.4 6.7 8.1 6.4 4.4 1.5 33.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 5.8 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.2 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 3.2 4.2 6.0 6.9 9.0 10.0 11.5 11.7 10.6 9.6 6.7 4.4 1.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
19-1 99.8% 4.4    4.2 0.1
18-2 96.2% 6.4    5.9 0.6 0.0
17-3 84.9% 8.1    6.4 1.6 0.1
16-4 63.4% 6.7    4.1 2.1 0.5 0.0
15-5 37.3% 4.4    1.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.0% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.1% 33.1 24.3 6.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.5% 70.8% 69.8% 1.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.5%
19-1 4.4% 65.2% 65.0% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.5 0.6%
18-2 6.7% 53.4% 53.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.4 3.1
17-3 9.6% 46.2% 46.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 0.9 5.1
16-4 10.6% 40.4% 40.4% 15.3 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.8 6.3
15-5 11.7% 32.5% 32.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 7.9
14-6 11.5% 21.1% 21.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 9.1
13-7 10.0% 13.7% 13.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 8.7
12-8 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.1
11-9 6.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.6
10-10 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.8
9-11 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
8-12 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-13 1.9% 1.9
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.4 7.8 10.0 74.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.9 53.8 1.9 3.8 26.9 1.9 7.7 1.9 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 48.3% 12.0 48.3